Nudging farmers in crop choice using price information: Evidence from Ethiopian Commodity Exchange

The lack of reference price information is often regarded as one of the most pervasive aspects of incomplete commodity markets in developing countries. Previous studies on the effects of price information emphasize the market participation and performance of rural households. This paper argues that access to reference price information influences farmers’ crop choice decisions, the most important decision in farming activity. The study exploits the variation in timing and spatial distance of the publicly run Ethiopian Commodity Exchange (ECX) price tickers as an indicator for variation in the intensity of access to reference price information among rural villages in Ethiopia. The paper finds that access to price information increases the average farm-gate prices for traded commodities and incentivizes farmers to allocate more land, fertilizer and improved seeds to commodities traded in the ECX. It also nudges farmers to produce more of the traded commodities, increasing the output share of ECX-traded commodities.     

Animal disease outbreaks and food market price dynamics: Evidence from regime‐dependent modelling and connected scatterplots

The economic impacts of animal disease outbreaks have been widely discussed in the literature. Most authors have centred their attention on estimating the direct costs. Recent studies have shown that the indirect economic effects might lead to equal or even higher welfare losses. This study aims to contribute to this field of research by assessing the effect of an animal disease outbreak on food market price dynamics in Mexico, accounting for the potential effect of an antitrust intervention. We employ a regime‐dependent vector error correction model and a connected scatterplot analysis. The results show that both the outbreak and the antitrust intervention caused structural breaks in food market price dynamics between producers and consumers, reflected in an increase in the absolute component of the marketing margin, with serious food security implications.     

Violation behavior in vertical restraint: Empirical analyses in the case of retail price maintenance

An extensive body of work within the marketing and economics literature has been devoted to studying vertical restraints, yet only a few researchers have investigated the violation behavior of retailers. In this paper, we investigate violation behavior in the context of retailer price maintenance. We investigate this behavior using a unique data set from a subsidy program in China, which includes transaction-level information that shows retail price maintenance (RPM) practices in multiple product categories by multiple manufacturers across multiple markets. The results from our fixed effects regression show that retailer violations are more likely to occur when intra-product competition is high. However, how retailer violation likelihood varies with inter-product competition may depend on the product category. We find that inter-product competition, is negatively associated with the likelihood of violation, for “less popular” product categories in the program such as washing machines, air conditioners, etc., but is positively associated with the likelihood of violation for “popular” product categories such as refrigerators, televisions, and cell phones. Our research provides some of the first empirical evidence about retailer violation behavior under RPM in the world’s largest emerging market by focusing on the relationship between violation behavior and market structure. We discuss the implications for monitoring efforts of manufacturers and regulators.     

Policy responses to an overheated housing market: Credit tightening versus transaction taxes

Among Asian economies, Hong Kong has experienced the highest real growth in house prices since the 2010s. Two macroprudential measures, namely credit tightening (loan-to-value ratio cap) and transaction taxes (stamp duty), were introduced to cool down the overheated housing market. This study examines and compares their effectiveness based on a set of constant-quality house price indices. Through an error correction model, we find that credit tightening was able to curb house price growth in the high-price segment, while transaction taxes could not. An explanation is that the exemptions from transaction taxes for those with genuine housing needs could be abused by other market participants. It is easier for buyers to exploit the exemptions to get around the stamp duty than to manipulate the property valuation for mortgage lending. The implication is that the effectiveness of macroprudential measures hinges on whether compliance or exemption can be easily monitored and enforced.     

非农就业对种植决策的影响*——基于土地地势的研究视角

［目的］农村劳动力非农转移影响农户农业生产方式变迁，土地质量差异造成的生产差异会随着农村劳动力非农转移造成的人力投入减少而更加显现。针对农户的市场经济行为，文章从理论及实证角度探讨农户农业劳动投入减少时农户生产决策的变化，并根据实证结果进一步探讨我国农业种植结构的变化趋势，为相关政策的制定提供决策参考。［方法］该文运用多元回归模型，从土地资源异质性的视角分析了劳动力非农就业后在不同地势耕地的农业生产决策变化。［结果］劳动力非农就业明显影响了农户种植决策，在质量较高的平地上，农户的生产决策是种植机械化生产使用高的粮食作物来减少劳动力投入下降，在质量较差的山坡地上，农户的生产决策是降低对山坡地的使用强度来解决劳动力投入不足问题，具体表现方式是降低粮食种植面积以及抛荒方式来分配家庭农业劳动投入。［结论］不同地势耕地利用强度将会出现不同变化，平原以及交通便利地区，可以通过机械来替代人力投入，交通较为不发达的山区丘陵地区，需要通过加大农业基础设施建设等来解决山区丘陵地区的抛荒问题。政策支持方面，鼓励中低产田提高产品产量与提升降本技术，保障与维护国家粮食安全。     

国有林场贫困测定与差异性研究

基于2008—2017年国家林业局对中国28个省(市、区)国有林场的调研数据,运用等价性检验的方法从地理位置、经济状况、可持续经营和发展能力层面上对国有林场的贫困测度和差异性进行实证分析。研究结果表明:国有贫困林场不一定位于贫困县,并且与国有非贫困林场之间的差异逐渐缩小;国有贫困林场区域异质性强,经济发展水平较低;国有贫困林场在森林资源基础、人力资源基础、基础设施和生产条件等方面的可持续发展能力较差。因此,提出了相关林业部门应该鼓励国有贫困林场发展特色林产品;加大扶贫资金投入;改善职工生计条件;加强资金管理意识等政策建议。     

山东省生态用地变化及驱动因素影响评价

［目的］研究第二次土地利用现状调查以来山东省生态用地变化特点及驱动因素，评价各类驱动因素对生态用地的影响程度，为科学编制区域空间规划，保护和合理利用生态用地提供参考。［方法］文章构建了全省生态用地转移矩阵，归纳了影响生态因素变化的主要驱动因素，提出了驱动力指数计算方法，定量分析和比对了各驱动因素对生态用地的影响。［结果］2009—2017年生态用地共计转出2048万hm2，占生态用地总面积的472%； 转入316万hm2，占生态用地总面积的072%。8年来全省生态用地净减少1732万hm2，占2009年生态用地总面积的400%。生态用地的流向以耕地最多，向城镇村及工矿用地流出次之，向设施农用地的流出也有较大面积。［结论］（1）在影响生态用地变化的六大驱动因素中，耕地开发和城镇村工矿占用的驱动力指数最高，非耕农业占用对生态用地的变化有一定影响。（2）六大因素中城镇村工矿占用对当地生态环境的破坏力最强。     

Land price diffusion across borders – the case of Germany

ABSTRACT

Land market regulations are often justified by the assumption that activities of foreign and non-agricultural investors drive up prices in domestic land markets. However, empirical knowledge about the dynamics of agricultural land prices across borders is sparse. Using the German reunification as a natural experiment, we study the effect of the former inner German border on the dynamics of agricultural land prices in East and West Germany. We apply a land price diffusion model with an error correction specification to analyse spatial agricultural land markets. A novel feature of our model is its ability to distinguish price diffusion within states and across state borders. We provide evidence for a persistent border effect given that the fraction of spatially integrated counties is larger within states than across the former border. Moreover, we observe non-significant error correction terms for many counties along the former border. From a policy perspective, it is striking to realize that even 25 years after German reunification, pronounced land price differences persist. It is quite likely that price diffusion through existing borders within the EU would take even more time given language barriers, different institutional frameworks, and information asymmetries between domestic and foreign market participants.     

The effects of exchange rate pass-through and cost channel on price level: The case of fragile five countries

ABSTRACT

In this study, we investigated whether the exchange rate and the interest rate had an effect on the inflation rate in the fragile five countries between the years of 1996Q4 and 2015Q4. In this context, a model was created to estimate the effect of interest rate and exchange rate on the inflation rate. The methods used in the study take into account cross-section dependence and heterogeneity. As a result of the analysis, it was determined that there was an exchange-rate and interest-rate pass-through effect in the fragile five countries. Moreover, it was found out that the cost channel and price puzzle were effective in Indonesia and South Africa but were not effective in Turkey, Brasil and India.     

The non-linear impact of oil price on the oil demand

ABSTRACT

A panel smooth transition regression model was adopted to analyse the non-linear impact of oil prices on oil demand. Data for 42 countries was obtained from the International Energy Agency for the time period spanning from January 1990 to June 2017. The results indicate that a threshold value does exist. Furthermore, when the oil price was lower than this threshold value, a positive relationship between oil price and oil demand was observed. When the price of oil was higher than the threshold value, however, a negative relationship between price and demand was found.